MMAFightSim Blog
Data-driven UFC analysis from the team behind the free fight simulator — rankings, matchups and breakdowns built on real fighter stats, not hot takes.
Prediction
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane: Who Wins? Our Simulator’s Prediction
We ran Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO (53% win probability). Full breakdown inside.
Prediction
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje: Who Wins? Our Simulator’s Prediction
We ran Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Ilia Topuria by Submission (64% win probability). Full breakdown inside.
Prediction
Khamzat Chimaev vs Dricus du Plessis: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Khamzat Chimaev vs Dricus du Plessis through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Khamzat Chimaev by Decision (53% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Arman Tsarukyan vs Islam Makhachev: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Arman Tsarukyan vs Islam Makhachev through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Islam Makhachev by Decision (65% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Tom Aspinall by Decision (63% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Dricus du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Dricus du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Dricus du Plessis by Submission (51% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Leon Edwards by Decision (58% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Conor McGregor vs Justin Gaethje: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Conor McGregor vs Justin Gaethje through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Justin Gaethje by Decision (53% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Merab Dvalishvili by Submission (60% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Ilia Topuria by Decision (52% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Islam Makhachev: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Islam Makhachev through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Islam Makhachev by Decision (56% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO (73% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Islam Makhachev by Submission (60% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Prediction
Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall: Who Wins? Our Simulator's Prediction
We ran Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall through our UFC fight engine. The verdict: Jon Jones by Decision (57% win probability). Here is the full breakdown.
Analysis
The 10 Toughest Chins in the UFC, Ranked by the Numbers
Which UFC fighters have the most durable chins? We ranked the top 10 by our fight engine durability rating - the fighters you can never count out.
Analysis
The Hardest Hitters in the UFC: Knockout Power Rankings
Who hits the hardest in the UFC? We ranked the top 10 knockout artists by our engine combined punching and kicking power rating.
Guide
How We Simulate UFC Fights: The Stats That Actually Decide a Matchup
A plain-English look at how our UFC fight simulator predicts winners - the four stat groups that decide a fight, and why style matchups beat overall rating.
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