2026 AI Algorithm Prediction
Winner
Kape
Method
KO/TKO
Round
Round 4
Kape Stops Horiguchi Late
Kape's relentless pressure and fight-altering power eventually break through Horiguchi's slick defensive work deep in the contest.
The first three rounds are razor-close, with Horiguchi using his elite footwork to dart in and out, land counter shots, and mix in occasional takedown attempts to keep Kape off-balance. Kape keeps walking forward, absorbing what comes his way, and slowly starts timing Horiguchi's entries as the fight wears on, landing heavier and more frequent shots as Horiguchi's output dips slightly in the later rounds.
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Expert AI Fight Analysis
Round-by-round breakdown · Tactical commentary · Key factors
Why This Fight Matters
Kape's Devastating Finishing Power
Kape carries fight-ending pop in every strike he throws, and he has the elite hand speed to land those shots even against fast, defensively sound opponents. He only needs one clean opening to turn a fight on its head, and he's consistently shown he's willing to push the pace to find that opening even when he's down on the cards early.
Horiguchi's Elite Fight IQ & Footwork
Horiguchi is one of the smartest fighters in the sport, with an unmatched ability to adjust his game plan mid-fight to exploit his opponent's weaknesses. His elite footwork lets him control the range of the fight, stay out of danger, and land sharp counters without taking unnecessary damage in return.
Takedown Defense Gap
Horiguchi holds a clear edge in wrestling and grappling, and he'll likely look to mix in takedown attempts throughout the fight to tire Kape out and steal rounds on the judges' scorecards. Kape's takedown defense is solid but not elite, so if he can't stuff Horiguchi's shots early, he could find himself fighting off his back for long stretches of the fight.
Rematch & Title Eliminator Stakes
This is a clear title eliminator for the UFC flyweight belt, with the winner guaranteed a shot at the reigning 125-pound champion later in 2026. It's also a rematch of their 2024 bout that Kape won via controversial split decision, so both men have extra motivation to leave no doubt in the judges' eyes this time around.
Combat Stats Comparison
Durability
Career Records
Manel Kape
Explosive, pressure-focused striker with devastating finishing power across all striking ranges.
Kyoji Horiguchi
Well-rounded, cerebral striker-wrestler with elite footwork and seamless transitions between ranges.
How Each Fighter Wins
Manel's Path to Victory
- • Walk forward consistently, cut off the cage, and force Horiguchi into exchanges where his power can take over.
- • Stuff early takedown attempts to discourage Horiguchi from pursuing grappling for the rest of the fight.
- • His lead left hook and right cross, both of which carry enough power to put any flyweight out cold.
- • Push a high pace from the opening bell to wear Horiguchi out and force him to make mistakes late.
Kyoji's Path to Victory
- • Use his footwork to stay on the outside, land sharp counter strikes, and mix in takedowns to pile up round points.
- • Avoid prolonged exchanges in the pocket where Kape's power advantage is most pronounced.
- • His lightning-fast kick arsenal and elite wrestling, which he can use to disrupt Kape's rhythm at every turn.
- • Stay patient, stick to his game plan, and avoid taking unnecessary risks that could give Kape an opening for a finish.
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SIMULATE THIS FIGHT →UFC Fight Night 279 — Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Full Fight Card
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Fighter Profiles
FAQ
Who wins Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi?
Manel Kape gets the finish in the fourth round. He starts slow, dropping the first two rounds to Horiguchi's slick counter striking and occasional takedowns, but turns the tide in the third when he starts timing Horiguchi's entries and landing heavy shots to the head and body. By the fourth round, Horiguchi's legs are gone, and Kape lands a flush right hand that puts him down for good.
When and where is UFC Fight Night 279 — Kape vs. Horiguchi 2?
This card goes down at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on June 20, 2026, headlined by the highly anticipated rematch between two of the best flyweights on the planet. The event also features a co-main event between top bantamweight contenders, making it one of the most stacked Fight Night cards of the year.
What is Manel Kape's record going into UFC Fight Night 279?
Manel Kape enters the bout with a 19-6 professional record, with 11 of his wins coming by way of knockout. His recent notable wins include a split decision over Horiguchi in their first meeting, a first-round knockout of former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, and a unanimous decision win over top contender Alexandre Pantoja.