2026 AI Algorithm Prediction
Winner
Nascimento
Method
Submission
Round
Round 2
Nascimento Secures Second-Round Tap
Nascimento’s superior ground game and endless gas tank allow him to drag Raposo into deep waters where he can hunt for fight-ending submissions.
This is a closely matched flyweight clash between two rising contenders with complementary skillsets, where the gap in grappling acumen proves to be the decisive difference. Nascimento will look to close the distance early to negate Raposo’s sharper striking and footwork, while Raposo will aim to keep the fight on the feet and pile up points with fast, accurate combinations.
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Expert AI Fight Analysis
Round-by-round breakdown · Tactical commentary · Key factors
Why This Fight Matters
Elite Grappling Edge
Nascimento is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the flyweight division, with a history of finishing fights once he gets top position or locks in a submission attempt. He has the wrestling chops to get the fight to the ground against most opponents at this level, and Raposo’s submission defense is the clear weak point in his game.
Crisper, Faster Striking
Raposo holds a clear edge on the feet, with faster hands and feet, sharper footwork, and more accurate striking that allows him to outpoint opponents who try to stand and trade with him. He’s got the power to hurt opponents if he lands clean, and he’s excellent at using his slightly longer reach to keep opponents at range while he lands combinations.
Range vs. Grappling Tug of War
This fight will be decided by who can force their preferred range: Raposo will look to keep the fight at kickboxing range where he can land fast combinations, while Nascimento will look to close the distance, tie Raposo up, and drag the fight to the mat. If Raposo can stuff the first few takedown attempts and build momentum on the feet, he could steal an early finish or decision win, but if Nascimento gets the fight down early, he’ll take control quickly.
Flyweight Rankings Clash
Both fighters are on the cusp of breaking into the top 10 of the flyweight division, so a win here will catapult the victor into a fight with a ranked contender in their next outing. This is a huge opportunity for both men to prove they belong among the elite at 125 pounds, especially on a Fight Night card headlined by a title eliminator in the same division.
Combat Stats Comparison
Durability
Career Records
Allan Nascimento
A high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with polished, technical striking and a relentless pace that wears opponents down over time.
Mitch Raposo
A dynamic, pressure-heavy striker with solid collegiate wrestling fundamentals and fast, precise combinations that keep opponents guessing.
How Each Fighter Wins
Allan's Path to Victory
- • Drag the fight to the mat early and hunt for a submission finish
- • Use feints to close the distance and negate Raposo’s sharper striking on the feet
- • High-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu and elite wrestling credentials
- • Push a relentless pace to wear Raposo down as the fight goes on
Mitch's Path to Victory
- • Keep the fight on the feet and pile up points with fast, accurate combinations
- • Use superior footwork to stay on the outside and avoid Nascimento’s takedown attempts
- • Blistering hand speed and sharp, technical striking with legitimate finishing power
- • Stuff early takedowns to build momentum and force Nascimento to fight his fight
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SIMULATE THIS FIGHT →UFC Fight Night 279 — Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Full Fight Card
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Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
Fighter Profiles
FAQ
Who wins Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo?
Allan Nascimento takes home the win in this closely contested flyweight clash, as his superior grappling and endless stamina allow him to drag Raposo into his world on the mat. He’ll absorb Raposo’s early pressure, get the fight to the ground midway through the second round, and lock in a fight-ending submission before the frame comes to a close.
When and where is UFC Fight Night 279 — Kape vs. Horiguchi 2?
This fight takes place at UFC Fight Night 279 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, on a card headlined by a highly anticipated flyweight rematch between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. The card is stacked with flyweight talent, giving both Nascimento and Raposo a huge platform to showcase their skills in front of a global audience and division matchmakers.
What is Allan Nascimento's record going into UFC Fight Night 279?
Allan Nascimento holds a 22-6 professional MMA record, with 15 of his wins coming by way of submission. His recent notable wins include decision victories over Carlos Hernandez and Tatsuro Taira, cementing his spot as a rising contender in the UFC flyweight division.