We are in for a treat at UFC Fight Night 279 with a flyweight rematch that promises pure violence. Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi are back to settle the score, and this one has all the makings of a technical barnburner.
Tier grades from our fight engine (S+ best, then S, A, B, C). Gold marks the edge in each phase.
Who's actually favored?
The smart money sits with Kyoji Horiguchi, primarily because he brings a more well-rounded arsenal into the cage. While both men possess S-tier striking, Horiguchi’s A-grade grappling gives him a crucial safety valve that Kape lacks. If the striking exchange gets too dicey, Horiguchi has the wrestling to change the narrative and steal minutes. Plus, his S-tier Fight IQ means he is less likely to make the catastrophic mistake that Kape thrives on. He is the better bet to navigate the chaos.
Does Kyoji Horiguchi have a real shot?
Manel Kape is absolutely live in this spot, and he only needs one moment of brilliance to flip the script. His S-tier durability means he can walk through fire to land his own power shots, which are incredibly dynamic. If he can keep this fight upright and force Horiguchi to match his wild intensity, the momentum shifts entirely in his favor. Kape wins by turning this into a dogfight where technique takes a backseat to heart. He just needs to stuff the takedowns and let his hands go.
How does it end?
This is almost certainly going the distance, likely a full three-round war that leaves the scorecards in the judges' hands. With both fighters boasting S-tier durability, a knockout or submission seems highly unlikely against elite competition. Horiguchi will use volume and grappling control to edge out rounds, avoiding the big exchange while staying busy. Expect a lot of feints, hard leg kicks, and scrambles, but ultimately no finish. It won’t be a spectacular finish, but a tactical display of dominance.
The bottom line from the engine
The engine makes Kyoji Horiguchi the favorite at 58%, most likely by Decision, going the distance. The engine settles on Horiguchi because his grappling advantage and superior Fight IQ allow him to minimize Kape's explosive output. He simply has more ways to win.
Bottom line: Horiguchi grinds out a tough win. It’s close, but he’s the better fighter.
Run it yourself: open the fight simulator, set up Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi, and see what the engine tells you. For a look behind the curtain, read how we simulate UFC fights.