2026 AI Algorithm Prediction
Winner
Almabayev
Method
Submission
Round
Round 2
Almabayev Submits Johnson
Asu Almabayev's elite grappling and wrestling advantage is too much for Charles Johnson to overcome once the fight hits the mat, even with Johnson's stellar cardio and granite chin.
We should see a competitive first round on the feet, with both fighters landing clean strikes as they feel each other out, but Almabayev will start timing takedowns by the midway point of the fight. Once he gets top position, he will overwhelm Johnson's submission defense with relentless chain grappling to lock up a fight-ending hold before the final bell.
Powered by Doubao AI · Based on 15+ combat stats per fighter · Run your own simulation →
Want more than a prediction?
Expert AI Fight Analysis
Round-by-round breakdown · Tactical commentary · Key factors
Why This Fight Matters
Elite Grappling Advantage
Almabayev is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the flyweight division, with a majority of his wins coming by way of submission. He is relentless once he secures top position, constantly threatening with chokes and joint locks while wearing opponents down with heavy ground and pound.
Superior Cardio & Durability
Johnson possesses some of the best stamina in the division, able to keep a high pace for three full rounds without fading even under heavy pressure. His iron chin has seen him survive some of the hardest hitters at 125 pounds, giving him a reliable safety net against early stoppages on the feet.
Striking Parity On The Feet
Both fighters carry legitimate power and speed on the feet, with identical reach meaning neither will have a significant range advantage during standing exchanges. The first round is expected to be closely contested on the feet, with the first takedown likely to be the turning point of the entire fight.
Home Region Spotlight
Fighting in Baku, just a short distance from his native Kazakhstan, Almabayev will have the crowd firmly behind him for the biggest opportunity of his UFC career to date. A win here will push him firmly into the top 5 of the flyweight rankings, putting him one fight away from a title shot.
Combat Stats Comparison
Durability
Career Records
Asu Almabayev
A well-rounded offensive threat with elite wrestling and grappling chops, complemented by heavy, accurate striking on the feet.
Charles Johnson
A dynamic, high-output striker with elite cardio and a durable chin, who prefers to keep fights standing to land combinations at range.
How Each Fighter Wins
Asu's Path to Victory
- • Secure takedowns early and often to force Johnson to work off his back, where he is far less comfortable
- • Use feints to set up entry for takedowns instead of forcing level changes when Johnson is in his striking rhythm
- • Chain grappling sequences that transition from ground and pound to submission threats to keep Johnson constantly off balance
- • Avoid extended striking exchanges with Johnson to minimize the risk of taking unnecessary damage before pursuing takedowns
Charles's Path to Victory
- • Keep the fight standing for all three rounds, using his high output striking to outpoint Almabayev on the judges' scorecards
- • Stuff takedown attempts using footwork and level changes, while punishing Almabayev's entries with short, sharp elbows and knees in the clinch
- • Sustained high-volume output across all three rounds that wears Almabayev down and stops him from committing to takedown attempts late in the fight
- • Use movement to avoid being pressed against the fence, where Almabayev has a massive advantage in the clinch and takedown setups
Run your own simulation with the full AI engine
SIMULATE THIS FIGHT →UFC Fight Night 280 — Fiziev vs. Torres — Full Fight Card
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Michel Pereira
Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev
Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Abusupiyan Magomedov
Fighter Profiles
FAQ
Who wins Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson?
Asu Almabayev gets his hand raised in this flyweight contest, largely thanks to his overwhelming advantage in the grappling department. While Johnson will have moments of success on the feet early, he won't be able to stop Almabayev from dragging the fight to the mat, where he will lock in a submission before the end of the second round.
When and where is UFC Fight Night 280 — Fiziev vs. Torres?
This fight takes place at UFC Fight Night 280 at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, the promotion's first ever trip to the country. The card is headlined by a lightweight showdown between Rafael Fiziev and Manuel Torres, with a host of regional talent filling out the undercard to appeal to local fight fans.
What is Asu Almabayev's record going into UFC Fight Night 280?
Asu Almabayev holds a professional record of 19-3-0, with 12 of his wins coming by way of submission. His recent notable wins include a first-round submission of Ode' Osbourne at UFC 298 and a unanimous decision victory over former title challenger Alex Perez in his last octagon appearance.